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Market Insight

It’s Real. US Government Bonds That Yield 9%+

Last week inflation hit a 40-year high and there has been much talk recently about its impact on markets and the economy (as we discussed recently here. One way investors can benefit from rising consumer prices is the Series I Savings bond (I-bonds) issued by the US. Treasury. I bonds set their interest rates every six months (in May and November) based on inflation and a fixed rate. Since they are tied to inflation rates, until recently I bonds have flown under...

A Roadmap for Uncertainty

First, the bad news. During this year’s first quarter inflation reached a 40-year high. Russia invaded Ukraine, destroying cities and killing civilians. The bond market had its worst three month stretch since 1980. At one point, the NASDAQ entered bear market territory, while the S&P 500 and Dow both experienced corrections. And, by one common measure, recession is a near certainty.

Reading the Tea Leaves of 2022

It has been said that “far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves”. That sage advice would have come in handy at the turn of 2021. Remember, this year started with a riot on Capitol Hill…during a global pandemic. Following the insurrection, concerns about newly elected President Biden’s proposed tax hikes took center stage, only to later be overshadowed by inflation running at levels not seen since the early 80’s.

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Anticipating Surprises

Like a worried parent, the financial media is never short on thinking about what can go wrong. Perhaps the anxiety is genuine, or maybe the angst is manufactured because fear inducing headlines get more views. Either way, the headlines often create investor unease, which in turn can affect investor behavior. For the past few months inflation, fear of rising interest rates and tax hikes have been the primary concerns, yet despite some doomsday headlines, the major stock indexes hover near all-time highs.

Is This Another Market Bubble?

Last week, your brother-in-law gave you another great stock tip. He’s been trading a lot over the past few months and doing well. Very well. He is an architect but watches a lot of CNBC and combs social media constantly for great intel. To be fair, the market is at an all-time high, so most investors have done well and have been eager to share their wisdom. These days just about everyone is talking about the stock market and online trading.

Quarterly Newsletter

Lessons Learned: Here's Why The Market Is At All Time Highs

It seems hard to believe, but less than a year ago the words “social” and “distancing” were rarely seen together. Last January talks of the market being overvalued were had on crowded subways in New York City, and discussions of an inevitable rise in interest rates were being forecast by credit analysts on crowded Wall Street trading floors. Remember, entering 2020 the S&P 500 (an index of 500 stocks often used to measure “the market”) was in the midst of its longest run ever without a 20% fall. It was a run that lasted nearly 12 years and saw prices rise over 400% since March 2009. So, of course, while stocks have been up 80% of the time over the past 50 years, it was natural for most of Wall Street’s brightest minds to call for a breather after the past decade’s historic, nearly uninterrupted rise.

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