Market Insight

According to the National Federation of State High School Associations, almost 600,000 boys participate on high school basketball teams. However, less than 5% of these athletes move on to play at the collegiate level, with a fraction of that, less than 1%, competing on Division I teams - the highest level . Despite their exceptional skill, only 1% of Division I players manage to reach the NBA , which employs around 550 players across all teams. The trajectory for female basketball players follows a similar pattern. Simply labeling professional basketball players as "the best of the best" fails to capture the extent of their talents and the obstacles they've overcome. Among this elite group are about two dozen individuals with extraordinary abilities – the All Stars.

Though it’s difficult to measure, 2023 may be remembered one of the worst years ever for economists and market forecasters. As the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Eve this past year, even the oft maligned weather forecaster looked like a seer when compared to the most followed financial prognosticators. Forbes labeled 2023 as “The Year of Terrible Market Predictions” with Business Insider echoing that sentiment in an article titled “Stock Market Gurus Predicted a Grim 2023. They were Dead Wrong.”

There’s no such thing as a free lunch. You know the phrase and what it means. Free hotel breakfasts, free checking, and free shipping all have associated embedded costs that we pay but don’t necessarily see. Everything has a cost, even money. The cost of money is the interest rate we pay to borrow it, and for the better part of the last 12 years, that interest rate has been near zero. And while free money seems like a dream come true, it too has costs, and this year we are paying the price.

Things are tough out there. The stock market is off to its worst start to a year since 1970. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Interest rates are rising. A recession could be around the corner if ...

Last week inflation hit a 40-year high and there has been much talk recently about its impact on markets and the economy (as we discussed recently here. One way investors can benefit from rising consumer prices is the Series I Savings bond (I-bonds) issued by the US. Treasury. I bonds set their interest rates every six months (in May and November) based on inflation and a fixed rate. Since they are tied to inflation rates, until recently I bonds have flown under...

First, the bad news. During this year’s first quarter inflation reached a 40-year high. Russia invaded Ukraine, destroying cities and killing civilians. The bond market had its worst three month stretch since 1980. At one point, the NASDAQ entered bear market territory, while the S&P 500 and Dow both experienced corrections. And, by one common measure, recession is a near certainty.