Market Insight

There’s no such thing as a free lunch. You know the phrase and what it means. Free hotel breakfasts, free checking, and free shipping all have associated embedded costs that we pay but don’t necessarily see. Everything has a cost, even money. The cost of money is the interest rate we pay to borrow it, and for the better part of the last 12 years, that interest rate has been near zero. And while free money seems like a dream come true, it too has costs, and this year we are paying the price.

Things are tough out there. The stock market is off to its worst start to a year since 1970. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Interest rates are rising. A recession could be around the corner if ...

It has been said that “far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves”. That sage advice would have come in handy at the turn of 2021. Remember, this year started with a riot on Capitol Hill…during a global pandemic. Following the insurrection, concerns about newly elected President Biden’s proposed tax hikes took center stage, only to later be overshadowed by inflation running at levels not seen since the early 80’s.

Last week, your brother-in-law gave you another great stock tip. He’s been trading a lot over the past few months and doing well. Very well. He is an architect but watches a lot of CNBC and combs social media constantly for great intel. To be fair, the market is at an all-time high, so most investors have done well and have been eager to share their wisdom. These days just about everyone is talking about the stock market and online trading.

It seems hard to believe, but less than a year ago the words “social” and “distancing” were rarely seen together. Last January talks of the market being overvalued were had on crowded subways in New York City, and discussions of an inevitable rise in interest rates were being forecast by credit analysts on crowded Wall Street trading floors. Remember, entering 2020 the S&P 500 (an index of 500 stocks often used to measure “the market”) was in the midst of its longest run ever without a 20% fall. It was a run that lasted nearly 12 years and saw prices rise over 400% since March 2009. So, of course, while stocks have been up 80% of the time over the past 50 years, it was natural for most of Wall Street’s brightest minds to call for a breather after the past decade’s historic, nearly uninterrupted rise.

Recession and Impeachment. Today’s financial headlines seem to be fixated on both topics, yet if history is any guide, only one of the two is likely to have an influence on financial markets. Recessions are periods of economic decline which are identified when Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falls for two consecutive quarters.