Market Insight

If you’ve ever tried to lose weight, you know the phrase: “The last five pounds are the hardest.” The first few pounds often melt away with relative ease, but shedding those final stubborn few requires effort, discipline, and time. And, sometimes, there are setbacks. Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve's battle with inflation has reached those stubborn “last five pounds.” While there is still some work to do to hit their 2% target, after peaking over 9% in June 2022, inflation now hovers below 3%, thanks to the easing of supply chains and the Fed’s efforts. Inflation can wreak havoc on an economy and financial markets, so keeping it under control is vital – which is why it is part of the Fed’s dual mandate, alongside promoting full employment.

It’s often said that The President of the United States (POTUS) is one of the most powerful people in the world. The President can influence tax policy, trade, government spending, and regulation, among many other consequential policies not related to the economy. As election day approaches, candidates Harris and Trump are expected to continue highlighting their economic agendas because, as James Carville stated during the Clinton campaign, it's all about “the economy, stupid.”

Surprised at how well the economy and markets have performed lately? You’re not alone. It’s hard to believe that it was barely one year ago when the Wall Street Journal reported that approximately 60% of the economists they surveyed were expecting a recession. In hindsight those predictions seem so far off, leading one to would wonder why those same economists were asked for their opinions again (this time, they put the odds of recession at around 25%). Instead of facing a recession and a stock market correction, we have benefited from a resilient economy and robust financial markets, despite the unprecedented political environment.

Though it’s difficult to measure, 2023 may be remembered one of the worst years ever for economists and market forecasters. As the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Eve this past year, even the oft maligned weather forecaster looked like a seer when compared to the most followed financial prognosticators. Forbes labeled 2023 as “The Year of Terrible Market Predictions” with Business Insider echoing that sentiment in an article titled “Stock Market Gurus Predicted a Grim 2023. They were Dead Wrong.”

There’s no such thing as a free lunch. You know the phrase and what it means. Free hotel breakfasts, free checking, and free shipping all have associated embedded costs that we pay but don’t necessarily see. Everything has a cost, even money. The cost of money is the interest rate we pay to borrow it, and for the better part of the last 12 years, that interest rate has been near zero. And while free money seems like a dream come true, it too has costs, and this year we are paying the price.

Things are tough out there. The stock market is off to its worst start to a year since 1970. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Interest rates are rising. A recession could be around the corner if ...